Collateral

[Oren1]

I don't know, I think almost everyone's prediction for this movie is too high. But I thought the same thing about Shrek 2. I don't think it's going to top 25 million, let alone 30. So far the screencount is only 2,800. Minority Report was in 3000 theaters and made around 35 mil. So the absolute ceiling for Collateral has got to be around 31-32 million, and I think the line will be lower than that.

As for Little Black Book, if they have a line for it I expect it to be very low, and wouldn't be surprised to see it do very poorly. Gil, your the chick-flick expert, what do you think?

 

[Gillian]

Tough one to call... because Kathy Bates and Holly Hunter are also in Little Black Book. There are no chick flicks out right now.

I'm going to wait and see what The Box Office Report predicts. He's usually pretty good with chick flicks.

 

[Oren1]

what about Collateral? what's the deal with that, why is everyone predicting such a high number for what looks like a run-of-the-mill action/thriller. BOR predicted 13 for Litte Black Book. I think that's too high, and I think the line is going to be around 9 to 11 if they even post one. 30 for Collateral isn't a bad prediction, I guess, but I really think it's going to be lower than that.

 

[Gillian]

Box Office Report:

Little Black Book - 13 million

Collateral - 30 million.

 

[Oren1]

Little Black Book is going to tank. It'll make 4.5 million, at best.

Which means, they WSEX probably won't put a line up for it, the pussies.

 

[Gillian]

Intertops will!

 

[Oren1]

here's what their lines will look like:

4 million or less +300
4 to 5 million +115
5 to 6 million +115
over 6 million +1000

 

[Gillian]

I don't know... The little Black Book's buzz is picking up. Just Married made 17 million. Same star, minus Ashton.

I see it doing around the same as Uptown Girls. 11 million.

 

[Oren1]

I would disagree, and say there is absolutely no buzz for this film. It has 2 user reviews at MSN movies. That's only 2 better than NONE. I give it a buzz score of -3.

 

[Oren1]

looks like Open Water might be generating more buzz than Collateral, it's on the moviefone chart and Collateral isn't yet. Of course that probably means nothing.

 

[Gillian]

Yeah, but rumor has it you get to see Britney Murphy's PUSSY in this film.

 

[Oren1]

Gil that language it totally unacceptable.

 

[Gillian]

I have a feeling there is going to be some suprises at the box office.

 

[Oren1]

maybe... Collateral is now #2 at moviefone, not that bad of timing.

 

[Oren1]

Collateral's theater count has been bumped to 3188. It's got around 40 user reviews at MSN movies, which isn't too bad. Little Black Book picked up another review, it's got 3 now.

but wait, Little Black Book is #8 on the Yahoo movie chart, maybe it will do o.k., maybe not... Collateral still isn't there yet.

 

[Gillian]

It sure took a LONG TIME for Collateral to get to # 1 on the movie chart. Hmm. It should make it over 24 million... but not by much. The Last Samurai made 24 million.

 

[Gillian]

Intertops is up as well.

 

[Oren1]

Little Black Book under 9 +120 2 units to win 2.4

The Collateral line is too close to what I think it's gonna make.

 

[Oren1]

intertops:
20 to 27 +115 1.5 units
under 20 +550 1 unit

It's not going over 27, in my opinion.

 

[Oren1]

hmmm, maybe I'm wrong about Collateral. They're actually having midnight screenings for it. I went to a midnight showing for Hellboy and there were like 10 people there, wonder if it's a legit comparison.

"Should be big. Had about 200 people at a midnight showing and I'd imagine most were like me who just happened to be down at the area and decided they had to go when they saw it was showing at 12:25. Great response from everyone in the theatre.. it truly is a gem and it will be Michael Mann's first domestic $100 million grosser. "



"Saw it at the midnight showing here in Memphis. A lot of people came in after the lights went down so it's hard to say how many were there. I would guess 40-50 before they went down so maybe anywhere from 60-80. I go to most of the midnight movies here and that's about the norm.
"

I hate it when the Box Office Mojo nerds are right.